Short analyses follow, first of the attack in Bulgaria and then of the attack in
hit Israel for about four years now. The
tempo of efforts – mostly failed (with a partial recent success in India) has
been high. This does not change my
fundamental argument that Hezbollah has is having a great deal of difficultycarrying out long-distance attacks against Israel. But eventually one was going to work. The key was apparently in finding a country
with sufficient security holes and unfortunately Bulgaria fit the bill.
this attack? The AMIA attack (which was
18 years ago today) and the attack on Israel’s Embassy in Argentina two years
earlier were revenge attacks for Israeli attacks on Hezbollah leaders. This was a belated (by four years) revenge
attack for the death of Hezbollah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh. But was there another angle? If so, it is tough to see.
Syria. It may increase international
frustration with Iran – which some elements within Iran appear to desire. They fear that their leaders will bargain
away Iran’s nuclear program.
terror-masters doing what they do. Terrorist
groups are organizations and units within organizations that are dedicated to
certain tasks like to do those tasks. In
particular, the groups that like to carry out violence, want to launch attacks
and if they don’t get to they get frustrated and possibly splinter.
Damascus a wicked part of my brain thought, “Finally, suicide bombers being
used against the bad guys.”
could be worse (for starters there is no US military presence to try to
regime has its back to the wall and knows what fate awaits it when it falls. They will go down fighting. Recent stories state they are moving units
from the Golan into the heart of the country and there are enormous worries
that Syria will deploy its vast chemical weapons stockpiles (after all, Saddam
Reconciliation Commissions about the Alawite Baathist regime. Long before the Assad clan took power, the
Alawites were a despised minority. That
they ruled the country was an insult, but there was no lack of injury at their
hands. When the regime falls there will
be mass murders and beheadings. The
atrocities in the uprising have engendered so much rage. Even if the regime had fallen quickly, there
were so many other misdeeds by the rulers over the past several decades that it
is difficult to imagine some sort of accord being reached. In the Middle East, memories are long.
private jets and get out. Perhaps he
still will. But it appears he is
establishing himself as the defender of his community, in which he must stop at
nothing in their increasingly final stand.